The Diffusion of Dunamancy

Imagine a scenario wherein your players uncover a long-lost series of spells. Currently known only to the adventuring party, these spells deal with medical and healing capabilities long-forgotten. How will they spread these discoveries?  Should they, even?  

Similar to the ideas covered in social network theory, where information is theorized to flow from opinion leaders into their social networks, knowledge of these newly discovered spells will likely spread beyond the confines of the adventuring party. How and why new technologies, information, strategies, techniques, and other innovations diffuse from their source into the general public was the concern of Everett Rogers, who is primarily responsible for developing this theory. For Rogers, both interpersonal connections and media were responsible for spreading innovations through a social system. Perhaps the party’s cleric begins to use the new healing spells first on party members, then on friendly NPCs he comes across. Perhaps soon, those grateful, healthy villagers spread tales and songs of the near-miraculous medical treatment they received at the hands of the party’s cleric. Communicating about (and sharing) the new spells through the party’s social systems serves to spread them among ever-greater portions of the population.

A number of factors play a role in just how fast and far an innovation spreads. First, social networks vary in their cohesiveness, intimacy, and levels of trust. Second, the perceived role of opinion leaders also influences innovation diffusion. For example, whether the party’s cleric represents a good deity, an evil goddess, or a black spirit from the Abyss could enhance or impede the rate at which simple villagers try to adopt the new spells.

In contrast to the two-step flow model hypothesized in social network theory, Diffusions of Innovations Theory hypothesizes an “S-shaped” curve adoption mode. In the example of your adventuring party’s discovery of new healing spells, they are the first category of the technology’s adoption: the innovators. Next come early adopters, the early majority, the late majority, and finally the laggards. The normal curve distribution does a fairly good job of representing these five groups, with a very small percentage adopting the innovations early, about two-thirds falling into the early and late majority categories, and the laggards accounting for about the remaining 15%. Adopting a new set of healing spells will not happen to an entire fantasy world overnight, just as a new smart phone or music-listening technology would. First, the people must know about the technology. Next, they must be persuaded of its advantages and utility. Third, individuals, groups, and organizations decide whether to accept or reject the innovation. Finally, they confirm their choice by modifying around the innovation.

Whether S-shaped or bell-curve shaped, the diffusions of innovations theory in-game might look something like:

1. The party cleric innovates or discovers the new spells

2. The party and allies quickly adopt, appreciate, and use the new spells.

3. As the party and allies encounter (and communicate with) other towns, villages, and communities, ever-more people learn about and begin to employ the new spells.

4. Seeing the benefits, and perhaps experimenting with the new spells, those who had been holding out, begin to use them. It seems like most people are using the new (rather than the old) spells. 

5. Lastly, the hold-outs (perhaps clerics or a rival deity or those who are generally opposed to magic) join in with the rest of the population.

But, what about the villagers?  Would they be more or less likely to adopt a new healing spell than would the citizens of a large, cosmopolitan city? Diffusion of Innovations research finds that, yes, there are at least a few “villager-variables” which precede the adventuring party coming to town, which play a role in their likelihood of adopting a new technology or arcane power. First, there are personality characteristics, such as a person’s general attitude toward change. Second, individuals who have more experience with difference, diversity, and various ways of living are more likely to positively respond to a novel new spell. A New Yorker is probably more likely to have the social characteristics which disposes them to positively respond to new ideas and technologies than would be an insular rural laggard. Third, people vary in the degree to which they perceive the need to innovate and change.

At the second stage of the diffusion process, in which individuals are actively being persuaded to adopt the innovative new spell (or videogame console, or coffee-maker) the perceived characteristics of the innovation become salient. A local acolyte observing the party’s cleric performing the new healing spell considers its relative advantages over existing spells. Perhaps the new spell has a greater range, affects a larger number of people, or produces a fresh pine scent when it is cast. Next, the simple fact that the acolyte is able to observe the spell in action makes the spell more likely to spread faster. The healing spell is more likely to be adopted if the acolyte can cast it as well; complex technologies spread more slowly. The compatibility of a new technology with existing innovations is advantageous to its spread. If the spell can only be cast by clerics and no other classes, that limits its spread among druid, bardic, and other communities. Additionally, people tend to like the option to try out a new innovation before committing to it. Dungeons & Dragons’s system allowing spellcasters of many classes to prepare new spells each day is a good example of trialability. If a caster thinks they might like a spell, they can try it for a day, experiment with it, and perhaps never use it again. Wizards who spent the money, time, and parchment to write a new spell into their books, don’t experience spells with the same level of trialability as do those clerics, druids and bards. Perceived cost reduces innovation spread. Lastly, some leaps are too great. Some innovations are thought to be too radical and strange to be quickly adopted. For the Amish, zippers, for instance. Imagine our new healing spell has a warm vial of ram’s blood and a pinch of rat tail as material components. Such a requirement would likely reduce the new spell’s adoption.

Once a technology has been adopted (or not) it might continue to be employed (or not). Like the acolyte who tries the new healing spell once and then never again, new technologies and innovations can be replaced, grown tired of, or outlive their utility. Previously rejected ideas, spells, and technologies might be later adopted. 

For dungeomasters, there are a few roles that the diffusions of innovations might play in your campaign. One area of research in this field is into the consequences of adopting an innovation. Imagine a scenario where a new, popular, and lucrative innovation is costing the environment, community, or faction great harm. A second hook might involve the individual channels needed to speed up an adoption. Unless a certain number of towns adopt a new shielding technology, none can be protected from an incoming threat (e.g., a pandemic, asteroid, Tarrasque).